Drawing on previous case studies from major global ‘shock’ events can assist in giving us some insights.
While no one can accurately predict the next few months, what we can draw on is lessons from past global events and how long it took our robust and agile aviation and tourism industries to ‘bounce back’.
COVID-19 is unlike anything we’ve witnessed before as it is on such a global scale, but among the uncertain times, case studies give us historical evidence to work with and focus!
And the good news is that in the past, once the ‘shock’ has passed, the recovery has generally been rapid.
This update – Case Study Insights (below)
- Lime is monitoring trustworthy sources such as WTO, CAPA, UNWTO and Government sources to give you the latest info we have at our disposal.
- We have pulled together some key case studies below from events such as SARS, Ansett’s Collapse, the GFC and 9-11.
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Australian Domestic Market Impact of Ansett Collapse and GFC.
(Source: BITRE and Lime Intelligence Analysis)
A strong recovery was recorded in each case.
Its important to note that the COVID-19 virus is more likely to have the most severe negative impact on Q4 of FY20 and Q1 of FY21 when re-forecasting passenger numbers.
Australia could see a stronger than ‘normal’ summer period for end of 2020/early 2021 (which is the countries traditional peak for tourism destinations). This is assuming travel restrictions are lifted by September 2020!
USA Domestic Market Impacts 9-11 and GFC.
(Source: Transtats, United States Department of Transportation)
SARS Recovery – CAPA Example of HKG Market.
(Source: Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation or CAPA)
China is showing some initial signs of capacity recovery.
(Source: CAPA)
Key points taken from CAPA’s report on 17-Mar-2020 4:33 PM
China aviation & travel looking to turn the corner post-COVID-19′
- Chinese airline capacity levels appear to have found a floor – domestic at -71% year-on-year and international at -81% year-on-year.
- Importantly, this is a capacity-led stabilisation at this point. There are a lot of empty seats flying around.
- A potential bright spot is that the Chinese airlines have filed more capacity for the Labour Day holidays in early May than in recent weeks.
- Summary: it is too early to call a stabilisation of the Chinese air travel market. Capacity has stabilised domestically, but it will take more weeks to understand if planned capacity increases are being met by demand.
International markets are yet to stabilise, and recovery will be delayed by the spread of COVID-19 abroad. Short haul markets should come back first, if the situation in those countries stabilises.
More details: Source: https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/china-aviation–travel-looking-to-turn-the-corner-post-covid-19-517711
